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Jablonec U19 vs Slovácko U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
K. Hudak 87'
S. Novotny 41'
I. Godwin 47'
M. Sesugh 7'
8/29/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 4Základní škola Mozartova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jablonec U1927%
×Draw22%
Slovácko U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec U19
1.38
Slovácko U19
1.98

Slovácko U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jablonec U19
0.87
Slovácko U19
1.30

allows per match

Jablonec U19
2.67
Slovácko U19
1.89

finishing

Jablonec U19+0.00on par
Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jablonec U19 or draw
49%
Jablonec U19 or Slovácko U19
78%
Draw or Slovácko U19
73%

Winning margin

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
12%
Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Jablonec U19 1+ goals
75%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
40%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
16%
Slovácko U19 1+ goals
86%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
59%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec U19 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec U19 attack 0.87 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jablonec U19 scores more
27%
level
22%
Slovácko U19 scores more
51%

Slovácko U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Sesugh
29'
M. Sesugh
41'
S. Novotny
46'
L. Hrbacek← L. Hrbacek
47'
I. Godwin
58'
O. Stecha
61'
L. Sirucek← L. Sirucek
70'
K. Zelina← K. Zelina
74'
S. Emmanuel
78'
A. Konak← A. Konak
82'
S. Novotny
82'
L. Zlatkovsky
87'
K. Hudak
90+2'
P. Krap
90+2'
P. Svoboda← P. Svoboda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jablonec U19 2–2 Slovácko U19

Jablonec U19 and Slovácko U19 drew 2-2 in 1. Liga U19 on August 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Sesugh (7'), S. Novotny (41'), I. Godwin (47'), K. Hudak (87').

The match was played at Základní škola Mozartova in Jablonec nad Nisou.