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Jablonec II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Jablonec II
Jablonec II
CANC
11:00
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
4/10/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 11UMT Jiskra Mšeno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jablonec II46%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec II
1.76
Sokol Živanice
1.39

Jablonec II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 64 away

creates per match

Jablonec II
1.64
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Jablonec II
1.64
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Jablonec II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jablonec II or draw
70%
Jablonec II or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
54%

Winning margin

Jablonec II wins by 2+
25%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jablonec II 1+ goals
83%
Jablonec II 2+ goals
52%
Jablonec II 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
75%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
40%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jablonec II (draw refunded)
60%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 80 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec II attack 1.64 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Jablonec II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jablonec II scores more
46%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
30%

Jablonec II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jablonec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jablonec II face Sokol Živanice (3. liga - CFL B)

3. liga - CFL B returns with Jablonec II hosting Sokol Živanice. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jablonec II host Sokol Živanice at UMT Jiskra Mšeno.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.