Jabaquara 3–2 Nacional SP: Result & Stats

Jabaquara

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional SP

A. Chub 90+7', 58' (pen)

T. F. Bastos da Silva 66' (pen)

Talisca 90+6'

Paolo 90+4'

3/23/2024

League #1062 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jabaquara55%

×Draw23%

Nacional SP22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JabaquaraExpected goals in this matchNacional SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.05

Jabaquara

1.82

Nacional SP

1.05

Jabaquara creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Jabaquara

2.00

Nacional SP

0.94

allows per match

Jabaquara

1.17

Nacional SP

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara+0.00on par

Nacional SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara ↓

Nacional SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jabaquara or draw

78%

Jabaquara or Nacional SP

77%

Draw or Nacional SP

45%

Winning margin

Jabaquara wins by 2+

31%

Nacional SP wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jabaquara 1+ goals

84%

Jabaquara 2+ goals

54%

Jabaquara 3+ goals

27%

Nacional SP 1+ goals

65%

Nacional SP 2+ goals

28%

Nacional SP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara (draw refunded)

72%

Nacional SP (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Nacional SP away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara attack 2.00 + Nacional SP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Nacional SP attack 0.94 + Jabaquara defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jabaquara scores more

55%

level

23%

Nacional SP scores more

22%

Jabaquara at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jabaquara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

P. Henrique

58'

A. ChubPenalty

66'

T. F. Bastos da SilvaPenalty

90+4'

Paolo

90+6'

Talisca

90+7'

A. Chub

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff