Jabaquara 1–2 Grêmio Sãocarlense: Result & Stats

Jabaquara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Grêmio Sãocarlense

M. Ney 90+4'

Joao Victor 90+2', 87'

3/16/2024

League #1062 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jabaquara50%

×Draw25%

Grêmio Sãocarlense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JabaquaraExpected goals in this matchGrêmio Sãocarlense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.08

Jabaquara

1.63

Grêmio Sãocarlense

1.08

Jabaquara creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Jabaquara

2.00

Grêmio Sãocarlense

1.00

allows per match

Jabaquara

1.17

Grêmio Sãocarlense

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara+0.00on par

Grêmio Sãocarlense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara ↓

Grêmio Sãocarlense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jabaquara or draw

75%

Jabaquara or Grêmio Sãocarlense

75%

Draw or Grêmio Sãocarlense

50%

Winning margin

Jabaquara wins by 2+

26%

Grêmio Sãocarlense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jabaquara 1+ goals

80%

Jabaquara 2+ goals

48%

Jabaquara 3+ goals

22%

Grêmio Sãocarlense 1+ goals

66%

Grêmio Sãocarlense 2+ goals

29%

Grêmio Sãocarlense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara (draw refunded)

67%

Grêmio Sãocarlense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Grêmio Sãocarlense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara attack 2.00 + Grêmio Sãocarlense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Grêmio Sãocarlense attack 1.00 + Jabaquara defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jabaquara scores more

50%

level

25%

Grêmio Sãocarlense scores more

25%

Jabaquara at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jabaquara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'

K. Thiaguinho

45+5'

87'

Joao Victor

90+2'

Joao Victor

90+4'

M. Ney

90+5'

Fabinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff