Jabaquara U20 vs União Suzano U20

Jabaquara U20

Preview

18:00

União Suzano U20

9/4/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 14

43%

Jabaquara U20

model favours

43%28%29%

53% of União Suzano U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2043%

×Draw28%

União Suzano U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchUnião Suzano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Jabaquara U20

1.33

União Suzano U20

1.04

Jabaquara U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

1.07

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

União Suzano U20

0.95

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

União Suzano U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

71%

Jabaquara U20 or União Suzano U20

72%

Draw or União Suzano U20

57%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

20%

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

74%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

38%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

15%

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

65%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

28%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

60%

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

43%

level

28%

União Suzano U20 scores more

29%

Jabaquara U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Jabaquara U20 sit 28, União Suzano U20 40 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LDLWW

U20

LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff