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Jabaquara U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
7/20/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jabaquara U2061%
×Draw21%
Rio Claro SP U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara U20
2.04
Rio Claro SP U20
0.99

Jabaquara U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jabaquara U20
1.07
Rio Claro SP U20
0.85

allows per match

Jabaquara U20
1.13
Rio Claro SP U20
3.00

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par
Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw
82%
Jabaquara U20 or Rio Claro SP U20
79%
Draw or Rio Claro SP U20
39%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
38%
Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
87%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
60%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
33%
Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
63%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
26%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more
61%
level
21%
Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
18%

Jabaquara U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Jabaquara U20 2–0 Rio Claro SP U20

Jabaquara U20 beat Rio Claro SP U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.