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Jabaquara U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Unknown 70', 64', 19'
6/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2042%
×Draw25%
Referencia U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara U20
1.48
Referencia U20
1.29

Jabaquara U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

creates per match

Jabaquara U20
1.07
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

Jabaquara U20
1.13
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw
67%
Jabaquara U20 or Referencia U20
75%
Draw or Referencia U20
58%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
20%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
77%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
43%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
19%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
72%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
37%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Referencia U20 scores more
33%

Jabaquara U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
52'
64'
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jabaquara U20 vs Referencia U20

Referencia U20 beat Jabaquara U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 6, 2025.

Goals: ? (19', 64', 70').

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.