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Jabaquara U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
T. Bispo 90' (pen)
A. Gabriel 87'
Foguete 16' (pen)
6/5/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2037%
×Draw27%
Portuguesa U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara U20
1.23
Portuguesa U20
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jabaquara U20
1.07
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

Jabaquara U20
1.13
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw
64%
Jabaquara U20 or Portuguesa U20
73%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
63%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
16%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
71%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
35%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
13%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
70%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
34%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more
37%
level
27%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
36%

Jabaquara U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
FoguetePenalty
87'
A. Gabriel
90'
T. BispoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Jabaquara U20 1–2 Portuguesa U20

Portuguesa U20 beat Jabaquara U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 5, 2026.

Goals: Foguete (16' pen), A. Gabriel (87'), T. Bispo (90' pen).