Jabaquara U20 5–1 Mauaense U20: Result & Stats

Jabaquara U20

FT

5 – 1

Mauaense U20

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jabaquara U2079%

×Draw12%

Mauaense U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchMauaense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.14

0.96

Jabaquara U20

3.14

Mauaense U20

0.96

Jabaquara U20 creates 227% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.07

creates per match

0.80

1.13

allows per match

5.20

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Mauaense U20

0.80

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Mauaense U20

5.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Mauaense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Mauaense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

92%

Jabaquara U20 or Mauaense U20

88%

Draw or Mauaense U20

21%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

60%

Mauaense U20 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

95%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

81%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

59%

Mauaense U20 1+ goals

62%

Mauaense U20 2+ goals

25%

Mauaense U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

90%

Mauaense U20 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Mauaense U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 5.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Mauaense U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.14

Mauaense U20 attack 0.80 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

79%

level

12%

Mauaense U20 scores more

8%

Jabaquara U20 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff