Jabaquara U20 0–2 Mauá U20: Result & Stats

Jabaquara U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mauá U20

A. dos Santos 43'

H. Siquera 19'

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2050%

×Draw27%

Mauá U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchMauá U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.87

Jabaquara U20

1.43

Mauá U20

0.87

Jabaquara U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.07

creates per match

0.61

1.13

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Mauá U20

0.61

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Mauá U20

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

77%

Jabaquara U20 or Mauá U20

73%

Draw or Mauá U20

50%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

25%

Mauá U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

76%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

42%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

17%

Mauá U20 1+ goals

58%

Mauá U20 2+ goals

22%

Mauá U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

50%

level

27%

Mauá U20 scores more

23%

Jabaquara U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

H. Siquera

43'

A. dos Santos

90+3'

F. Nascimento

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff