Jabaquara U20 3–1 Botafogo SP U20: Result & Stats

Jabaquara U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP U20

J. dos Santos 90'

Hebert 89'

J. Santos 51'

Erik Rebello 61'

5/24/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2037%

×Draw25%

Botafogo SP U2038%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchBotafogo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.40

Jabaquara U20

1.39

Botafogo SP U20

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.07

creates per match

1.67

1.13

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Botafogo SP U20

1.67

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Botafogo SP U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

62%

Jabaquara U20 or Botafogo SP U20

75%

Draw or Botafogo SP U20

63%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

17%

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

75%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

40%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

16%

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

75%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

41%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

37%

level

25%

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

38%

Botafogo SP U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

J. Santos

55'

Felipe Penha

61'

Erik Rebello

89'

Hebert

90'

J. dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff