Jabaquara U20 0–0 Água Santa U20: Result & Stats

Jabaquara U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Água Santa U20

5/9/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2046%

×Draw25%

Água Santa U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchÁgua Santa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.16

Jabaquara U20

1.54

Água Santa U20

1.16

Jabaquara U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.07

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Água Santa U20

1.19

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Água Santa U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

71%

Jabaquara U20 or Água Santa U20

75%

Draw or Água Santa U20

54%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

23%

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

79%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

45%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

20%

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

69%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

32%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

46%

level

25%

Água Santa U20 scores more

29%

Jabaquara U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff