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Jabala vs Al Wahda — Premier League 2019

Jabala
Jabala
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Wahda
Al Wahda
12/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Al-Baath Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Jabala33%
×Draw29%
Al Wahda38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabala
1.05
Al Wahda
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

creates per match

Jabala
1.23
Al Wahda
1.21

allows per match

Jabala
1.07
Al Wahda
0.88

finishing

Jabala+0.00on par
Al Wahda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabala ↓

Al Wahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jabala or draw
62%
Jabala or Al Wahda
71%
Draw or Al Wahda
67%

Winning margin

Jabala wins by 2+
13%
Al Wahda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jabala 1+ goals
65%
Jabala 2+ goals
28%
Jabala 3+ goals
9%
Al Wahda 1+ goals
68%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
32%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jabala (draw refunded)
47%
Al Wahda (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabala at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 80 matches

Al Wahda away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabala attack 1.23 + Al Wahda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Wahda attack 1.21 + Jabala defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jabala scores more
33%
level
29%
Al Wahda scores more
38%

Al Wahda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Jabala 2–0 Al Wahda

Jabala beat Al Wahda 2-0 in Premier League on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Baath Stadium in Jableh.