Jabala 4–1 Al Sahel: Result & Stats

Jabala

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Al Sahel

11/3/2023

Premier League · Round 4Al-Baath Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jabala55%

×Draw25%

Al Sahel20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JabalaExpected goals in this matchAl Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Jabala

1.59

Al Sahel

0.85

Jabala creates 87% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 24 away

1.23

creates per match

0.63

1.07

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Jabala

1.23

Al Sahel

0.63

allows per match

Jabala

1.07

Al Sahel

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabala+0.00on par

Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabala ↓

Al Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jabala or draw

80%

Jabala or Al Sahel

75%

Draw or Al Sahel

45%

Winning margin

Jabala wins by 2+

29%

Al Sahel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jabala 1+ goals

80%

Jabala 2+ goals

47%

Jabala 3+ goals

21%

Al Sahel 1+ goals

57%

Al Sahel 2+ goals

21%

Al Sahel 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jabala (draw refunded)

73%

Al Sahel (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabala at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 80 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabala attack 1.23 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Jabala defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jabala scores more

55%

level

25%

Al Sahel scores more

20%

Jabala at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jabala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff