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Jabala vs Al Jaish — Premier League 2019

Jabala
Jabala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Jaish
Al Jaish
1/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Al-Baath Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jabala26%
×Draw26%
Al Jaish48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabala
1.07
Al Jaish
1.54

Al Jaish creates 44% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jabala
1.23
Al Jaish
2.00

allows per match

Jabala
1.07
Al Jaish
0.92

finishing

Jabala+0.00on par
Al Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabala ↓

Al Jaish →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jabala or draw
52%
Jabala or Al Jaish
74%
Draw or Al Jaish
74%

Winning margin

Jabala wins by 2+
10%
Al Jaish wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jabala 1+ goals
66%
Jabala 2+ goals
29%
Jabala 3+ goals
9%
Al Jaish 1+ goals
79%
Al Jaish 2+ goals
45%
Al Jaish 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jabala (draw refunded)
35%
Al Jaish (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabala at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 80 matches

Al Jaish away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabala attack 1.23 + Al Jaish defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Jaish attack 2.00 + Jabala defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jabala scores more
26%
level
26%
Al Jaish scores more
48%

Al Jaish at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Jabala 1–1 Al Jaish

Jabala and Al Jaish drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 28, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Baath Stadium in Jableh.