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Izvor Gorski izvor vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
1 – 0
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
9/26/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 8Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor54%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191522%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Yambol 1915
0.95

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 118 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
78%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
46%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
29%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
81%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
49%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
23%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
61%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
25%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
71%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
54%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
22%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Izvor Gorski izvor 1–0 Yambol 1915

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Yambol 1915 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.