Izvor Gorski izvor 0–0 Gigant Saedinenie

Izvor Gorski izvor

FT

0 – 0

Gigant Saedinenie

4/25/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 28Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor50%

×Draw26%

Gigant Saedinenie25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Izvor Gorski izvorExpected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.99

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.53

Gigant Saedinenie

0.99

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

1.65

creates per match

1.17

0.82

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.65

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.82

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw

75%

Izvor Gorski izvor or Gigant Saedinenie

74%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

50%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+

25%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals

78%

Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals

45%

Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals

20%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

63%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

26%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)

67%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more

50%

level

26%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

25%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff