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Izvor Gorski izvor vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
2 – 1
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
5/12/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 31Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor36%
×Draw26%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.30
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
63%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
74%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
64%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
16%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
73%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
37%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
14%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
73%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
38%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
49%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
36%
level
26%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
37%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Izvor Gorski izvor 2–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.