Izvor Gorski izvor 3–0 Borislav 2009

Izvor Gorski izvor

FT

3 – 0

Borislav 2009

5/5/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 24Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor65%

×Draw20%

Borislav 200915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Izvor Gorski izvorExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.86

Izvor Gorski izvor

2.08

Borislav 2009

0.86

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 142% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

1.65

creates per match

0.91

0.82

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.65

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.82

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw

85%

Izvor Gorski izvor or Borislav 2009

80%

Draw or Borislav 2009

35%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+

41%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals

87%

Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals

61%

Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals

34%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

58%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

21%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)

82%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.08

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more

65%

level

20%

Borislav 2009 scores more

15%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff