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Iztapa vs Xinabajul — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xinabajul
Xinabajul
10/30/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Iztapa58%
×Draw22%
Xinabajul19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.87
Xinabajul
0.98

Iztapa creates 91% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 59 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Xinabajul
0.90

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Xinabajul
1.88

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Xinabajul+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Xinabajul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
81%
Iztapa or Xinabajul
78%
Draw or Xinabajul
42%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
34%
Xinabajul wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
85%
Iztapa 2+ goals
56%
Iztapa 3+ goals
29%
Xinabajul 1+ goals
62%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
26%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
75%
Xinabajul (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Xinabajul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Xinabajul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Xinabajul attack 0.90 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Iztapa scores more
58%
level
22%
Xinabajul scores more
19%

Iztapa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iztapa vs Xinabajul

Xinabajul beat Iztapa 1-0 in Liga Nacional on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.