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Iztapa vs Sacachispas — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sacachispas
Sacachispas
4/17/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Iztapa62%
×Draw21%
Sacachispas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.96
Sacachispas
0.91

Iztapa creates 115% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Sacachispas
0.76

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Sacachispas
2.06

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Sacachispas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Sacachispas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
83%
Iztapa or Sacachispas
79%
Draw or Sacachispas
38%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
37%
Sacachispas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
86%
Iztapa 2+ goals
58%
Iztapa 3+ goals
31%
Sacachispas 1+ goals
60%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
23%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
79%
Sacachispas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Sacachispas away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Sacachispas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sacachispas attack 0.76 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Iztapa scores more
62%
level
21%
Sacachispas scores more
17%

Iztapa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Iztapa 4–0 Sacachispas

Iztapa beat Sacachispas 4-0 in Liga Nacional on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.