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Iztapa vs Guastatoya — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guastatoya
Guastatoya
3/13/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa54%
×Draw25%
Guastatoya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.58
Guastatoya
0.89

Iztapa creates 78% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 152 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Guastatoya
0.73

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Guastatoya
1.30

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Guastatoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
79%
Iztapa or Guastatoya
75%
Draw or Guastatoya
46%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
28%
Guastatoya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
79%
Iztapa 2+ goals
47%
Iztapa 3+ goals
21%
Guastatoya 1+ goals
59%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
22%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
72%
Guastatoya (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Iztapa scores more
54%
level
25%
Guastatoya scores more
21%

Iztapa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Iztapa 4–0 Guastatoya

Iztapa beat Guastatoya 4-0 in Liga Nacional on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.