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Iztapa vs Comunicaciones — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
4/19/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 19Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa48%
×Draw26%
Comunicaciones27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.53
Comunicaciones
1.08

Iztapa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 157 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Comunicaciones
1.11

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Comunicaciones
1.20

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
73%
Iztapa or Comunicaciones
74%
Draw or Comunicaciones
52%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
24%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
78%
Iztapa 2+ goals
45%
Iztapa 3+ goals
20%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
66%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
29%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
64%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Iztapa scores more
48%
level
26%
Comunicaciones scores more
27%

Iztapa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iztapa vs Comunicaciones

Comunicaciones beat Iztapa 5-1 in Liga Nacional on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.