Iztapa 5–3 Cobán Imperial: Result & Stats

Iztapa

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Cobán Imperial

12/5/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 22Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa53%

×Draw25%

Cobán Imperial22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IztapaExpected goals in this matchCobán Imperial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Iztapa

1.63

Cobán Imperial

0.97

Iztapa creates 68% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 146 away

1.86

creates per match

0.88

1.05

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Iztapa

1.86

Cobán Imperial

0.88

allows per match

Iztapa

1.05

Cobán Imperial

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Cobán Imperial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw

78%

Iztapa or Cobán Imperial

75%

Draw or Cobán Imperial

47%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+

28%

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals

80%

Iztapa 2+ goals

48%

Iztapa 3+ goals

22%

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals

62%

Cobán Imperial 2+ goals

25%

Cobán Imperial 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)

70%

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.40 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cobán Imperial attack 0.88 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Iztapa scores more

53%

level

25%

Cobán Imperial scores more

22%

Iztapa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff