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Cobán Imperial vs Iztapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iztapa
Iztapa
2/15/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 6Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cobán Imperial59%
×Draw23%
Iztapa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobán Imperial
1.81
Iztapa
0.88

Cobán Imperial creates 106% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 82 away

creates per match

Cobán Imperial
1.51
Iztapa
0.95

allows per match

Cobán Imperial
0.80
Iztapa
2.12

finishing

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par
Iztapa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobán Imperial ↓

Iztapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cobán Imperial or draw
82%
Cobán Imperial or Iztapa
77%
Draw or Iztapa
41%

Winning margin

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
34%
Iztapa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
84%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
54%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
27%
Iztapa 1+ goals
59%
Iztapa 2+ goals
22%
Iztapa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
77%
Iztapa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobán Imperial at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.80 · 146 matches

Iztapa away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobán Imperial attack 1.51 + Iztapa defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Iztapa attack 0.95 + Cobán Imperial defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cobán Imperial scores more
59%
level
23%
Iztapa scores more
18%

Cobán Imperial at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cobán Imperial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Cobán Imperial 2–0 Iztapa

Cobán Imperial beat Iztapa 2-0 in Liga Nacional on February 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi in Cobán.