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Iztapa vs Achuapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Achuapa
Achuapa
3/5/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa59%
×Draw23%
Achuapa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.81
Achuapa
0.88

Iztapa creates 106% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 122 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Achuapa
0.70

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Achuapa
1.75

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Achuapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
82%
Iztapa or Achuapa
77%
Draw or Achuapa
41%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
34%
Achuapa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
84%
Iztapa 2+ goals
54%
Iztapa 3+ goals
27%
Achuapa 1+ goals
59%
Achuapa 2+ goals
22%
Achuapa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
77%
Achuapa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Iztapa scores more
59%
level
23%
Achuapa scores more
18%

Iztapa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iztapa vs Achuapa

Iztapa beat Achuapa 4-0 in Liga Nacional on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.