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Izola vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Izola
Izola
CANC
13:00
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
4/17/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Izola39%
×Draw22%
Sava Kranj40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izola
1.84
Sava Kranj
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Izola
2.18
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Izola
1.32
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Izola+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izola ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Izola or draw
60%
Izola or Sava Kranj
78%
Draw or Sava Kranj
61%

Winning margin

Izola wins by 2+
20%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Izola 1+ goals
84%
Izola 2+ goals
55%
Izola 3+ goals
28%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
84%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
55%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Izola (draw refunded)
49%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izola at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izola attack 2.18 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Izola defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Izola scores more
39%
level
22%
Sava Kranj scores more
40%

Sava Kranj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Izola face Sava Kranj (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Izola hosting Sava Kranj. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.