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İzmir Çoruhlu FK vs Sancaktepe Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
9/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMenemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İzmir Çoruhlu FK30%
×Draw28%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
1.00
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.25

Sancaktepe Belediyespor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
1.00
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
1.50
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

finishing

İzmir Çoruhlu FK+0.00on par
Sancaktepe Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İzmir Çoruhlu FK ↓

Sancaktepe Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

İzmir Çoruhlu FK or draw
58%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
72%
Draw or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
70%

Winning margin

İzmir Çoruhlu FK wins by 2+
11%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1+ goals
63%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK 2+ goals
26%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK 3+ goals
8%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 1+ goals
71%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 2+ goals
36%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

İzmir Çoruhlu FK (draw refunded)
41%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İzmir Çoruhlu FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sancaktepe Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK attack 1.00 + Sancaktepe Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sancaktepe Belediyespor attack 1.00 + İzmir Çoruhlu FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

İzmir Çoruhlu FK scores more
30%
level
28%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor scores more
42%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sancaktepe Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1–1 Sancaktepe Belediyespor

İzmir Çoruhlu FK and Sancaktepe Belediyespor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Menemen Şehir Stadı in Menemen.