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Izarra vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Izarra
Izarra
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
12/21/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Izarra43%
×Draw25%
Unionistas de Salamanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izarra
1.52
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

Izarra creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Izarra
1.41
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

Izarra
1.22
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Izarra or draw
68%
Izarra or Unionistas de Salamanca
75%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
57%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+
21%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals
78%
Izarra 2+ goals
45%
Izarra 3+ goals
20%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
72%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
36%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)
58%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 1.41 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Izarra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Izarra scores more
43%
level
25%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
32%

Izarra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Izarra 2–6 Unionistas de Salamanca

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Izarra 6-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Merkatondoa in Lizarra.