Izarra 2–1 San Juan: Result & Stats

Izarra

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

San Juan

3/21/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 27Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Izarra48%

×Draw26%

San Juan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IzarraExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.99

Izarra

1.47

San Juan

0.99

Izarra creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

0.68

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Izarra

2.00

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Izarra

0.68

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

San Juan →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Izarra or draw

75%

Izarra or San Juan

74%

Draw or San Juan

52%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+

24%

San Juan wins by 2+

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals

77%

Izarra 2+ goals

43%

Izarra 3+ goals

18%

San Juan 1+ goals

63%

San Juan 2+ goals

26%

San Juan 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)

65%

San Juan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 2.00 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

San Juan attack 1.29 + Izarra defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Izarra scores more

48%

level

26%

San Juan scores more

25%

Izarra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff