Izarra 2–2 Real Valladolid II: Result & Stats

Izarra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Valladolid II

Yoel Sola 59'

Álex Hinojosa 50'

Miguel De la Fuente 80' (pen), 5' (pen)

1/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Izarra42%

×Draw27%

Real Valladolid II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IzarraExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Izarra

1.35

Real Valladolid II

1.11

Izarra creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Izarra

1.41

Real Valladolid II

1.00

allows per match

Izarra

1.22

Real Valladolid II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Izarra or draw

69%

Izarra or Real Valladolid II

73%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

58%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+

20%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals

74%

Izarra 2+ goals

39%

Izarra 3+ goals

15%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

67%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

30%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)

58%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 1.41 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Izarra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Izarra scores more

42%

level

27%

Real Valladolid II scores more

31%

Izarra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Miguel De la FuentePenalty

50'

Álex Hinojosa

59'

Yoel Sola

68'

Javier Gómez← Javier Areso

75'

B. Ivaylov← Carlos Doncel

80'

Miguel De la FuentePenalty

81'

Pablo Ruiz← Valdo

82'

Alex Hinojosa

82'

Alex Hinojosa

83'

G. Mancuso← M. El Hacen

86'

Juan Segura← Oriol Rey

Izarra

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Pablo Álvarez

68'▲Javier Gómez←▼Javier Areso

81'▲Pablo Ruiz←▼Valdo

Izarra substitutes

GómezRuizEncadaAllalaSendorek

Manager: Baraja

75'▲B. Ivaylov←▼Carlos Doncel

83'▲G. Mancuso←▼M. El Hacen

86'▲Juan Segura←▼Oriol Rey

Real Valladolid II substitutes

IvaylovMancusoSeguraCasadoCamposPérezMuñoz