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Izarra vs Oberena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Izarra
Izarra
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Oberena
Oberena
9/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 1Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Izarra64%
×Draw20%
Oberena15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izarra
2.04
Oberena
0.88

Izarra creates 132% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Izarra
2.00
Oberena
1.08

allows per match

Izarra
0.68
Oberena
2.08

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par
Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Oberena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Izarra or draw
85%
Izarra or Oberena
80%
Draw or Oberena
36%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+
40%
Oberena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals
87%
Izarra 2+ goals
60%
Izarra 3+ goals
33%
Oberena 1+ goals
59%
Oberena 2+ goals
22%
Oberena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)
81%
Oberena (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 2.00 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Oberena attack 1.08 + Izarra defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Izarra scores more
64%
level
20%
Oberena scores more
15%

Izarra at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Izarra 5–0 Oberena

Izarra beat Oberena 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Merkatondoa in Estella (Lizarra).