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Izarra vs Cortes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Izarra
Izarra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cortes
Cortes
1/24/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Izarra56%
×Draw25%
Cortes19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izarra
1.59
Cortes
0.81

Izarra creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 107 away

creates per match

Izarra
2.00
Cortes
0.95

allows per match

Izarra
0.68
Cortes
1.18

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par
Cortes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Cortes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Izarra or draw
81%
Izarra or Cortes
75%
Draw or Cortes
44%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+
30%
Cortes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals
80%
Izarra 2+ goals
47%
Izarra 3+ goals
21%
Cortes 1+ goals
56%
Cortes 2+ goals
19%
Cortes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)
75%
Cortes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Cortes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 2.00 + Cortes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cortes attack 0.95 + Izarra defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Izarra scores more
56%
level
25%
Cortes scores more
19%

Izarra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Izarra 3 – 0 Cortes

Izarra beat Cortes 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Merkatondoa in Estella (Lizarra).