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Izarra vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Izarra
Izarra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
4/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Izarra69%
×Draw20%
Atlético Artajonés12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izarra
2.01
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

Izarra creates 196% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

creates per match

Izarra
2.00
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Izarra
0.68
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Izarra or draw
88%
Izarra or Atlético Artajonés
80%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
31%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+
43%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals
87%
Izarra 2+ goals
59%
Izarra 3+ goals
32%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
49%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
15%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)
85%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 2.00 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.01

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Izarra defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Izarra scores more
69%
level
20%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
12%

Izarra at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Izarra 3 – 0 Atlético Artajonés

Izarra beat Atlético Artajonés 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Merkatondoa in Estella (Lizarra).