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Iwaki vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Iwaki
Iwaki
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
6/29/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 22Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Iwaki31%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iwaki
1.14
Yokohama FC
1.39

Yokohama FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 86 away

creates per match

Iwaki
1.27
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Iwaki
1.36
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw
57%
Iwaki or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
69%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+
12%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals
68%
Iwaki 2+ goals
32%
Iwaki 3+ goals
11%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
40%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)
42%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.27 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Iwaki defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Iwaki scores more
31%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
43%

Yokohama FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iwaki vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Iwaki 4-0 in J2 League on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki in Iwaki.