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Iwaki vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2025

Iwaki
Iwaki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
11/23/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 37Iwaki Greenfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Iwaki44%
×Draw28%
Renofa Yamaguchi28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iwaki
1.33
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.01

Iwaki creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Iwaki
1.50
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.93

allows per match

Iwaki
1.09
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.17

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw
72%
Iwaki or Renofa Yamaguchi
72%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
56%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+
20%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals
74%
Iwaki 2+ goals
38%
Iwaki 3+ goals
15%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
64%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)
61%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.50 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.93 + Iwaki defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Iwaki scores more
44%
level
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
28%

Iwaki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iwaki vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Iwaki and Renofa Yamaguchi drew 0-0 in J2 League on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Iwaki Greenfield in Iwaki.