Iwaki 0–0 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Iwaki

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

9/20/2025

J2 League · Round 30Iwaki Greenfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Iwaki37%

×Draw27%

Mito Hollyhock36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IwakiExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Iwaki

1.29

Mito Hollyhock

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 169 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.36

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Iwaki

1.27

Mito Hollyhock

1.19

allows per match

Iwaki

1.36

Mito Hollyhock

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw

64%

Iwaki or Mito Hollyhock

73%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

63%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+

16%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals

72%

Iwaki 2+ goals

37%

Iwaki 3+ goals

14%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

72%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

36%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)

51%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.27 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.19 + Iwaki defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Iwaki scores more

37%

level

27%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

36%

Iwaki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff