Ivory Coast W 2–0 Kenya W: Result & Stats

Ivory Coast W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kenya W

M. Diakite 52'

A. Grace N'dri 9'

4/4/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ivory Coast W73%

×Draw18%

Kenya W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ivory Coast WExpected goals in this matchKenya W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.60

Ivory Coast W

2.13

Kenya W

0.60

Ivory Coast W creates 255% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.33

creates per match

1.08

0.11

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Ivory Coast W

2.33

Kenya W

1.08

allows per match

Ivory Coast W

0.11

Kenya W

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ivory Coast W+0.00on par

Kenya W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast W ↓

Kenya W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ivory Coast W or draw

91%

Ivory Coast W or Kenya W

82%

Draw or Kenya W

27%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast W wins by 2+

48%

Kenya W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ivory Coast W 1+ goals

88%

Ivory Coast W 2+ goals

63%

Ivory Coast W 3+ goals

35%

Kenya W 1+ goals

45%

Kenya W 2+ goals

12%

Kenya W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast W (draw refunded)

89%

Kenya W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

Kenya W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast W attack 2.33 + Kenya W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kenya W attack 1.08 + Ivory Coast W defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ivory Coast W scores more

73%

level

18%

Kenya W scores more

9%

Ivory Coast W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ivory Coast W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Grace N'dri

52'

M. Diakite

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff