Ivory Coast 2–2 Sierra Leone: Result & Stats

Ivory Coast

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sierra Leone

N. Pépé 65'

S. Haller 25'

A. Kamara 90+3'

Musa Noah Kamara 55'

1/16/2022

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ivory Coast56%

×Draw27%

Sierra Leone17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ivory CoastExpected goals in this matchSierra Leone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.67

Ivory Coast

1.46

Sierra Leone

0.67

Ivory Coast creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.92

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ivory Coast

1.92

Sierra Leone

0.67

allows per match

Ivory Coast

0.67

Sierra Leone

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Sierra Leone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw

83%

Ivory Coast or Sierra Leone

73%

Draw or Sierra Leone

44%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+

29%

Sierra Leone wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals

77%

Ivory Coast 2+ goals

43%

Ivory Coast 3+ goals

18%

Sierra Leone 1+ goals

49%

Sierra Leone 2+ goals

15%

Sierra Leone 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)

77%

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 1.92 + Sierra Leone defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sierra Leone attack 0.67 + Ivory Coast defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ivory Coast scores more

56%

level

27%

Sierra Leone scores more

17%

Ivory Coast at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Pépé

Ivory Coast · F

8.7

Match Events

25'

S. Haller↳ W. Zaha

52'

Osman Kakay

55'

Musa Noah Kamara↳ M. Turay

65'

N. Pépé↳ I. Sangaré

72'

C. Kouamé← S. Haller

73'

H. Traorè← I. Sangaré

73'

75'

82'

82'

83'

90+5'

90+3'

O. Kossounou← E. Bailly

90+3'

A. Kamara↳ Steven Caulker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IvorySierra

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots7

10Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots7

8On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked0

15Inside Box7

3Outside Box0

Passing

61%Possession39%

480Total Passes312

411Accurate Passes231

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0