Ivory Coast 1–0 Mozambique: Result & Stats

Ivory Coast

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mozambique

A. Diallo 49'

12/24/2025

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Grand Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ivory Coast62%

×Draw22%

Mozambique16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ivory CoastExpected goals in this matchMozambique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.83

Ivory Coast

1.90

Mozambique

0.83

Ivory Coast creates 129% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ivory Coast

1.92

Mozambique

1.00

allows per match

Ivory Coast

0.67

Mozambique

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Mozambique+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Mozambique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw

84%

Ivory Coast or Mozambique

78%

Draw or Mozambique

38%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+

37%

Mozambique wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals

85%

Ivory Coast 2+ goals

56%

Ivory Coast 3+ goals

29%

Mozambique 1+ goals

56%

Mozambique 2+ goals

20%

Mozambique 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)

80%

Mozambique (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Mozambique away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 1.92 + Mozambique defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mozambique attack 1.00 + Ivory Coast defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ivory Coast scores more

62%

level

22%

Mozambique scores more

16%

Ivory Coast at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Siluane

Mozambique · G

8.3

Match Events

35'

Witi

49'

A. Diallo↳ F. Kessie

55'

Reinildo Mandava

67'

V. Bayo← W. Zaha

67'

Domingues← M. Kambala

67'

F. Bangal← S. Ratifo

67'

Gildo← Witi

68'

S. Fofana← J. Seri

80'

Yan Diomande

81'

O. Diakite← A. Diallo

84'

Nanani← Diogo Calila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IvoryMozambique

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots4

9Corners3

17Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots4

5On Target2

7Off Target0

3Blocked2

10Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

530Total Passes455

486Accurate Passes404

92%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2