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Ivory Coast vs Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Guinea
Guinea
6/10/2017Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade de Bouaké (Stade de la Paix) (Bouaké)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ivory Coast55%
×Draw26%
Guinea19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ivory Coast
1.55
Guinea
0.79

Ivory Coast creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ivory Coast
1.92
Guinea
0.91

allows per match

Ivory Coast
0.67
Guinea
1.18

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw
81%
Ivory Coast or Guinea
74%
Draw or Guinea
45%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+
29%
Guinea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals
79%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
46%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
20%
Guinea 1+ goals
55%
Guinea 2+ goals
19%
Guinea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
74%
Guinea (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 1.92 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Guinea attack 0.91 + Ivory Coast defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ivory Coast scores more
55%
level
26%
Guinea scores more
19%

Ivory Coast at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ivory Coast vs Guinea

Guinea beat Ivory Coast 3-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 10, 2017.

The match was played at Stade de Bouaké (Stade de la Paix) (Bouaké).