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Ivory Coast vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Ivory Coast
Ivory Coastadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
2/7/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Semi-finalsStade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ivory Coast46%
×Draw28%
Congo DR26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ivory Coast
1.36
Congo DR
0.94

Ivory Coast creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ivory Coast
1.92
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Ivory Coast
0.67
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw
74%
Ivory Coast or Congo DR
72%
Draw or Congo DR
54%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+
22%
Congo DR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals
74%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
39%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
16%
Congo DR 1+ goals
61%
Congo DR 2+ goals
24%
Congo DR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
64%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 1.92 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Ivory Coast defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ivory Coast scores more
46%
level
28%
Congo DR scores more
26%

Ivory Coast at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ivory Coast vs Congo DR

Ivory Coast beat Congo DR 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara in Abidjan.