Ivory Coast 1–1 Cameroon: Result & Stats

Ivory Coast

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cameroon

A. Diallo 51'

G. Konan 56' (OG)

12/28/2025

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Grand Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ivory Coast54%

×Draw25%

Cameroon21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ivory CoastExpected goals in this matchCameroon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.91

Ivory Coast

1.61

Cameroon

0.91

Ivory Coast creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.15

0.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ivory Coast

1.92

Cameroon

1.15

allows per match

Ivory Coast

0.67

Cameroon

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Cameroon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Cameroon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw

79%

Ivory Coast or Cameroon

75%

Draw or Cameroon

46%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+

29%

Cameroon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals

80%

Ivory Coast 2+ goals

48%

Ivory Coast 3+ goals

22%

Cameroon 1+ goals

60%

Cameroon 2+ goals

23%

Cameroon 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)

72%

Cameroon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Cameroon away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 1.92 + Cameroon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cameroon attack 1.15 + Ivory Coast defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ivory Coast scores more

54%

level

25%

Cameroon scores more

21%

Ivory Coast at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Diallo

Ivory Coast · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

Carlos Baleba

38'

Amad Diallo

51'

A. Diallo↳ G. Konan

56'

G. KonanOwn goal

61'

J. Gbamin← I. Sangare

70'

C. Inao Oulai← S. Fofana

70'

E. Guessand← V. Bayo

73'

K. Etta Eyong← C. Kofane

74'

O. Kemen← D. Namaso

75'

Junior Tchamadeu

80'

Christ Inao Oulaï

80'

C. Bassogog← J. Tchamadeu

87'

W. Zaha← A. Diallo

90+1'

F. Boyomo← A. Avom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IvoryCameroon

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots12

7Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target2

6Off Target7

5Blocked3

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

338Total Passes337

281Accurate Passes278

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2