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Ivory Coast vs Benin — Friendlies 2026

Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Benin
Benin
3/23/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ivory Coast54%
×Draw23%
Benin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ivory Coast
1.78
Benin
1.07

Ivory Coast creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ivory Coast
2.27
Benin
1.14

allows per match

Ivory Coast
1.00
Benin
1.29

finishing

Ivory Coast+0.00on par
Benin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivory Coast ↓

Benin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ivory Coast or draw
77%
Ivory Coast or Benin
77%
Draw or Benin
46%

Winning margin

Ivory Coast wins by 2+
30%
Benin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ivory Coast 1+ goals
83%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
53%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
26%
Benin 1+ goals
66%
Benin 2+ goals
29%
Benin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
70%
Benin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ivory Coast at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Benin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ivory Coast attack 2.27 + Benin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.78

Benin attack 1.14 + Ivory Coast defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ivory Coast scores more
54%
level
23%
Benin scores more
23%

Ivory Coast at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Ivory Coast 2–2 Benin

Ivory Coast and Benin drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Amiens.