Ivatsevichi 2–2 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats | Coppa

Ivatsevichi

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ruh Brest

6/12/2019

Coppa · 2nd RoundStadyen DYuSSh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ivatsevichi22%

×Draw18%

Ruh Brest60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IvatsevichiExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.67

Ivatsevichi

1.61

Ruh Brest

2.67

Ruh Brest creates 66% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.22

creates per match

2.00

3.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ivatsevichi

2.22

Ruh Brest

2.00

allows per match

Ivatsevichi

3.33

Ruh Brest

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ivatsevichi+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ivatsevichi ↓

Ruh Brest →

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Ivatsevichi or draw

40%

Ivatsevichi or Ruh Brest

82%

Draw or Ruh Brest

78%

Winning margin

Ivatsevichi wins by 2+

10%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Ivatsevichi 1+ goals

80%

Ivatsevichi 2+ goals

48%

Ivatsevichi 3+ goals

22%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

93%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

74%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Ivatsevichi (draw refunded)

27%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ivatsevichi at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ivatsevichi attack 2.22 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ruh Brest attack 2.00 + Ivatsevichi defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ivatsevichi scores more

22%

level

18%

Ruh Brest scores more

60%

Ruh Brest at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff