Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Iváncsa vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Iváncsa
Iváncsa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
11/13/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 17Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Iváncsa67%
×Draw19%
Kecskeméti TE II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iváncsa
2.32
Kecskeméti TE II
1.00

Iváncsa creates 132% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Iváncsa
2.40
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Iváncsa
0.83
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw
85%
Iváncsa or Kecskeméti TE II
81%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
33%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+
44%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals
90%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
67%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
40%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
63%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
26%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)
82%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.40 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.32

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Iváncsa defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Iváncsa scores more
67%
level
19%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
15%

Iváncsa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Iváncsa 3–1 Kecskeméti TE II

Iváncsa beat Kecskeméti TE II 3-1 in NB III - Northwest on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Iváncsai Sportpálya in Iváncsa.