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Iváncsa vs Gárdony — NB III - Southwest 2019

Iváncsa
Iváncsa
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Gárdony
Gárdony
9/29/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 9Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Iváncsa74%
×Draw15%
Gárdony11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iváncsa
2.66
Gárdony
0.91

Iváncsa creates 192% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

Iváncsa
2.96
Gárdony
0.88

allows per match

Iváncsa
0.93
Gárdony
2.35

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par
Gárdony+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Gárdony →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw
89%
Iváncsa or Gárdony
85%
Draw or Gárdony
26%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+
53%
Gárdony wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals
93%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
74%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
49%
Gárdony 1+ goals
60%
Gárdony 2+ goals
23%
Gárdony 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)
87%
Gárdony (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Gárdony away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + Gárdony defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.66

Gárdony attack 0.88 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Iváncsa scores more
74%
level
15%
Gárdony scores more
11%

Iváncsa at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Iváncsa 5–1 Gárdony

Iváncsa beat Gárdony 5-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Iváncsai Sportpálya in Iváncsa.