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Iváncsa vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Iváncsa
Iváncsa
FT
10 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Főnix
Főnix
10/27/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 13Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Iváncsa77%
×Draw13%
Főnix10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iváncsa
3.28
Főnix
1.17

Iváncsa creates 180% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Iváncsa
2.96
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Iváncsa
0.93
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw
90%
Iváncsa or Főnix
87%
Draw or Főnix
23%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+
58%
Főnix wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals
96%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
83%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
62%
Főnix 1+ goals
69%
Főnix 2+ goals
33%
Főnix 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)
88%
Főnix (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.28

Főnix attack 1.40 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Iváncsa scores more
77%
level
13%
Főnix scores more
10%

Iváncsa at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iváncsa vs Főnix

Iváncsa beat Főnix 10-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Iváncsai Sportpálya in Iváncsa.