Iváncsa 2–2 Ferencváros II: Result & Stats

Iváncsa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ferencváros II

5/18/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Iváncsa57%

×Draw20%

Ferencváros II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IváncsaExpected goals in this matchFerencváros II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.34

Iváncsa

2.21

Ferencváros II

1.34

Iváncsa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.96

creates per match

1.76

0.93

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Iváncsa

2.96

Ferencváros II

1.76

allows per match

Iváncsa

0.93

Ferencváros II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par

Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Ferencváros II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw

77%

Iváncsa or Ferencváros II

80%

Draw or Ferencváros II

43%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+

35%

Ferencváros II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals

89%

Iváncsa 2+ goals

65%

Iváncsa 3+ goals

38%

Ferencváros II 1+ goals

74%

Ferencváros II 2+ goals

39%

Ferencváros II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)

71%

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Iváncsa scores more

57%

level

20%

Ferencváros II scores more

23%

Iváncsa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff