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ITZ Sport vs Santa Quitéria — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
FT
2 – 1
Santa Quitéria
Santa Quitéria
10/30/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Walter Lira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ITZ Sport44%
×Draw29%
Santa Quitéria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
1.25
Santa Quitéria
0.92

ITZ Sport creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Santa Quitéria
0.33

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Santa Quitéria
1.00

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
Santa Quitéria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Santa Quitéria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
73%
ITZ Sport or Santa Quitéria
71%
Draw or Santa Quitéria
56%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
20%
Santa Quitéria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
71%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
36%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
13%
Santa Quitéria 1+ goals
60%
Santa Quitéria 2+ goals
23%
Santa Quitéria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
62%
Santa Quitéria (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Santa Quitéria away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Santa Quitéria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santa Quitéria attack 0.33 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
44%
level
29%
Santa Quitéria scores more
27%

ITZ Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ITZ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: ITZ Sport 2–1 Santa Quitéria

ITZ Sport beat Santa Quitéria 2-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Walter Lira in Imperatriz, Maranhão.